THE JUB’A’D’DIS’AGREEMENT: 4-Comment-based Analyses of How Peace was Undone in Juba Consultation Meeting

From the negotiators point of view, it is always almost impossible for two or more armies to accept the political armistice and march in their columns into each other’s parades under one C-in-C from the day one of the signatures by the non-military signatories in a political gimmick fanned and funded by foreign dignitaries. So what should be done? It is known. It takes time to mobilize or demobilize, reintegrate or disintegrate the highly tribalized militias and the falsely politicized soldiers into a professional and conventional national army. This time is called ‘pre-interim period’. It is the time during which the troops are wild and resentful to their own political and military leaders, leave alone ‘cross-leaders’ forced on their traumatized ranks and files by the peace documents. Unless we are postponing the war, we should not rush those wild armies like the White Armies, Mathiang-Anyor, etc. into one camp before they are cleansed from PSTD (Post-Trauma Stress Disorder).

THE WEAKLEAKS WEEK’S LEAK: The IGAD’s Hot Paper That Turns into a Red Pepper…!

Nevertheless, with Kiir continuing in power, chances that Riek becomes the next president are limited. It makes it the post-July 23rd scenario–no marked difference nor any new change! Therefore, maintaining the status quo of Kiir’s system (I call it ‘DemoKiiracy’) is no permanent solution to the war. It maintains the mistrust already entrenched and may make Riek’s generals not bring their forces home and lay down their tools. In short, the paper must be subjected to intense negotiation as is now going on. But the bottomline for longer solution is either the two are in the government, and abstain from vying for the next political power, or they are out of the interim administration and wait for the next elections. Any other opinion that gives one an unfair advantage over the other is but a postponement of the past and present massacres for BIGGER ONES!

TO THOSE PURPORTING ME AS ‘NYIGAT’, I AM SUPPORTING ‘NyIGAD’ IN ADDIS ABABA!

John, are you a supporter of Nyagat?…is a very naïve question one of the peace negotiators in Addis Ababa asked me on my arrival from Nairobi with the civil society team over a… Continue reading →